16.06.2010 -

Canarian volcanologists worked hard to bring the biennial conference to the islands, to help underline the general lack of preparation in the islands in the face of future eruptions.  The Canaries are volcanic islands and sooner or later a new eruption will break out somewhere.  Out of the seven islands, only Tenerife has a fully drawn up emergency plan and experts emphasise that even that has not yet been tested or published.

Many communities in the world live with volcanoes, but sadly, all too often, familiarity breeds contempt and the possible risks, as well as the possible opportunities are ignored.  At a seminar for the island’s press, only two representatives of the majority Spanish press were present, indicating that they either already know it all, or they are not interested.  Reductions in the conference fee of over 70 per cent for teachers saw less than 10 Canarian education specialists take up the opportunity.

Volcanoes are part of nature, they are expected to provide up to 10 per cent of the world’s energy in the future and without them the Canary Islands would not exist.  A volcanic eruption is not catastrophic, a catastrophe is what is caused when there is improper vigilance of volcanic activity, no evacuation plans or plans are incorrectly carried out.  A volcanic hazard is what happens when people settle too close to volcanoes, and danger occurs when they are without the knowledge or means to protect themselves.

During the early days of the conference, which continues as we go to print, several worrying pieces of information were revealed.  Key installations such as the new northern hospital and the possible Granadilla port which is supposed to take over all of Tenerife’s future shipping are both in possible risk areas.

Every eruption is different and since, over the millennia, the Canaries has experienced all of the various types of dangers associated with volcanoes: explosions, ash flows and showers, mud flows, landslides, shifts in earth levels, lava flows, poisonous gasses and tsunamis, it is impossible to predict the type of eruption that will happen here next.  Whilst previous Canarian eruptions caused little loss of life, history has only recorded 23 deaths from volcanic eruptions in the Islands over the last five centuries, the amount of risk is correlated exactly to the population levels which now stand at the highest saturation level ever, particularly along the coast where most lava, mud and ash flows would be led by the various ravines.  Ash deposits of up to 10 metres in depth have been measured from previous tinerfeñan eruptions for example.  The calming inference that seemed to be coming from the authorities after the seismic mini-crisis in 2004, that a couple of bulldozers could get in front of the lava flow and cleave a safe path for any danger, would seem to have no basis in scientific fact.  If a major eruption occurs, water supplies will be widely contaminated and power supplies and transport inevitably heavily affected.

Also worrying is that one of the two monitoring bodies in the islands does not share its information with the rest of the scientific community, meaning that frequently expensive and scarce equipment is duplicated in potential hot spots.  That political or personal interest should allowed to be put above the safety and welfare of the public who pay for this equipment and personnel is scandalous and should be stopped now.

Experts agree that the Canaries is “due” an eruption, but they cannot predict where or when and “due” would seem to be an elastic statement too for a science that deals in millennia rather than decades.  The longest period that the Canaries has gone within recorded historical times without an eruption is 85 years, but the average time between volcanic episodes is 40 years (the last eruption was in 1971 in La Palma).  We were also told that the space between highly explosive eruptions is around 200,000 years and since it is 188,000 years approximately since the last one, we are also “due” another soon, however no scientist can or will put his hand on his heart and declare when.

What we have to do is to be properly informed and prepared.  Risk areas need to be identified in all the islands, the areas kept a close watch on and plans drawn up.  People need to know what to do and a proper system set up to sound the alarm, somewhat more complicated given the multi-linguistic nature of the resident and tourist population of the Islands.

On the plus side in Tenerife at least, we are lucky to have two airports, with the probability that at least one should be able to continue to operate if there is a problem here.  The new Canarian Volcano Institute is also finally to be set up and will be sited in Puerto de la Cruz.

So, failing other information, if there is a problem where do we go to escape immediate danger?  According to Ray Cas, an Australian volcanology professor with a number of years of experience in Tenerife, the safest areas will probably be Teno and Anaga, although they too could experience some fallout.

More information next edition.


This article appears in the print edition 618 of Island Connections

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